HOW TO WIN AT BETFAIR- Advice,Tips,Strategy

THE PORTFOLIO APPROACH TO BETTING ON BETFAIR

An article from Betfair Betting Exchange for Best Ten Gaming Sites by Gary Boswell

Defining “portfolio”

Portfolio betting means taking a number of positions on a single market, usually a long-term one. On Betfair, these could be a number of backs, lays or a combination of both.

Given that it is an approach generally associated with long-term markets, it is not recommended for the punter who likes a quick flutter and who is keen to collect his winnings the day before yesterday; this is the marathon rather than the sprint.

As mentioned above, the chief characteristic of this technique is having several bets on the one market; these backs and lays can be hedged at any time as prices become favourable. That is one of the fascinating aspects of this approach. Not just trying to predict ultimate outcomes but predicting short term ones too.

The 2009/10 Premiership Rock Bottom market

This is an ideal market to construct a portfolio in. Who is destined to become this season’s West Brom and get themselves adrift at the bottom early in the season? If you can predict that, there’s good money to be made in backing them at pre-season price and laying back after six games.

The two teams to concentrate on in the 09/10 season are Burnley and Hull who lead the market at 3.1 and 5.1 respectively. Owen Coyle’s Clarets could be a massive price at 3.1 given that they have games against Manchester United, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool in their first six – two of those away from home.

A realistic prediction for their first six games is a maximum of four and that should see them rooted early. The old maxim that solid defence is paramount for Premier League survival is likely to be of concern at Turf Moor. They conceded 60 in 46 league games last year – the worst defensive record in the top six – and you have to think that Birmingham’s 37 in 46 is more like the requirement necessary for survival.

For the Clarets, much will depend on whether Danish goalkeeper Brian Jensen can repeat his Carling Cup heroics against Chelsea and Arsenal. The ‘Beast’ must get off to a good start to prevent the heads going down. Thirty-five-year-old defender Graham Alexander is also key as his experience was undoubtedly the holding factor in their Championship campaign last season.

Can he really be expected to repeat that against the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea though? Those tough opening six games make them a good bet to be bottom after the early exchanges. Likewise Hull would have been rock bottom by a long way last season if proceedings had started in January. Back these two pre-season, watch their price come in and then adjust your position accordingly.

The 2009/10 Premiership Top Goalscorer market

This market provided an excellent portfolio possibility towards the end of last season when the current Golden Boot holder Cristiano Ronaldo was underpriced to defend his crown. He had a serious contender in Nicolas Anelka who did indeed pip him to the title and this season is a baffling 17.5 fourth favourite to repeat that feat in the 2009/10 season. Fernando Torres is 5.0 favourite with Didier Drogba and Wayne Rooney second and third favourites at 13.0 and 16.0 respectively.

Michael Owen is a ridiculously short 14.0 – on the drift though from an early market price in single figures!! – and the sneaky outsider in the market is Carlos Tevez at 34.0. Stoke’s Ricardo Fuller may also be worth a small flutter at a massive 260.0 after his 11 goals in Stoke’s debut season. He can be fancied to build on that again this season and the opening game against Burnley’s questionable defence gives him the chance to be top after game one! Chance for an early profitable hedge!

A lot of money is coming for Andrei Arshavin – currently 34.0 in from 50.0 - after his goal gluts that ended last season’s campaign whereas Peter Crouch – who raced to 11 goals last season but then dried up – is a whopping 110.0 which might also be worth including in your portfolio – especially if he moves to a team that creates more chances for him than he got at Portsmouth.

Top Tip

Portfolio betting across a season isn’t solely about removing your liability at the first opportunity. You can adjust your position accordingly many times. If you decide to back Burnley to finish rock bottom and you manage to lay them off for more than your stake at 1.5, which results in you getting a green position on all runners in the market, your activity doesn’t have to end there. You may decide that Sunderland, who are just two points off the bottom and trading at 2.2 won’t be finishing bottom either so you can then lay your profit on them, thus increasing your green position on the field.