THE FOOTBALL RELEGATION BATTLE AND
ROCK BOTTOM MARKETS
An article from Betfair
Betting Exchange for Best Ten Gaming Sites by Andrew
Athlerley
It
pays to ignore the obvious in football
With
plenty of twists, turns and relegation dogfights that
usually go down to the wire, these are two of
Betfair’s most exciting season-long betting markets.
This is really where the highly competitive nature of the
Premier League comes into play and, with the relegation
situation often changing week by week, there are plenty
of trading opportunities for backers and layers.
Sometimes
one of the big names can be sucked into the relegation
abyss – Newcastle last season and Leeds in 2003/04 -
and that means big prices can be available for backers.
Newcastle started last season at 24.0 to be relegated and
were odds-against for most of the season, even after it
became clear they had plenty of problems, whilst
Birmingham were relegated in 2005/06 after starting the
season at 18.0.
On
the other hand, for layers it can pay to lay the obvious
favourites. Hull and Stoke survived last season, having
started at 1.44 and 1.53 respectively, and in two of the
past four seasons both of the two shortest-priced teams
in the relegation market have stayed up.
The
2009/10 Relegation market
Bets
in the Relegation market are settled on whether a team
finishes in one of the bottom three places (18th, 19th,
20th) and the three promoted teams always start the
season at, or near, the top of the market. This season is
no exception – Burnley are favourites at 1.66,
Birmingham are next at 2.08 and Wolves are fourth
favourites at 2.56. Splitting them are Hull, who survived
by the skin of their teeth last season and, like
Birmingham, are 2.08 to go down this time.
Yet
the promoted teams don’t go down as often as most
people think. In the 14 seasons since the Premier League
was reduced to 20 teams, fewer than half of the promoted
teams (20 out of 42) have been relegated.
The
other grouping to look at, especially for backers in
search of bigger prices, is the worst six survivors from
last season (the teams that finished in places
12th-17th). In the past 14 seasons, 16 of the 42
relegated teams have come from this group.
Overall,
that means 36 of the last 42 relegated teams have been
either (a) promoted teams or (b) among the worst six
survivors from the previous season. So, for this season,
that gives us a list of nine teams that are likely to
contain the three relegated teams – as well as the
aforementioned Burnley, Birmingham, Wolves and Hull, that
list includes Sunderland (16th last season) and available
at 10.0 to be relegated, Blackburn (15th) at 9.8,
Portsmouth (14th) at 4.9, Bolton (13th) at 8.6 and Stoke
(12th) at 4.3.
The
Rock Bottom market
This
is the market for backers who think a particular team
won’t be able to cut it in the Premier League this
season, with bets settled only on whether a team finishes
bottom (20th) in the Premier League. With only one place
available, backers have to be spot on with their
predictions, but the attraction is that bigger prices are
available than in the relegation market.
The
favourites this season are Burnley at 3.05, though it is
worth bearing in mind that the favourite has finished
bottom in only four of the past 10 seasons.
Of
the other eight teams that start the season in greatest
peril, Hull are next in the Rock Bottom market at 5.1,
Birmingham are 7.2, Wolves 8.6, Portsmouth 15.5, Stoke
18.0, Sunderland 29.0, Blackburn 32.0 and Bolton 40.0.
The
other team the market is pointing towards is Wigan, 11th
last season under Steve Bruce but now managed by novice
Premier League manager Roberto Martinez. The Latics are
16 in the Rock Bottom market and 5.6 sixth favourites in
the Relegation market.
Unlike
the Relegation market, it usually pays to bet on one of
the promoted teams in the Rock Bottom market. In the past
14 seasons, a promoted team has finished bottom on nine
occasions, including in five of the past six seasons. Two
of the other five bottom-placed teams had finished 17th
the previous season, so the likelihood is that the bottom
team this time will be one of the three promoted teams -
Burnley, Birmingham or Wolves – or last
season’s 17th-placed finisher, Hull.
Top
Tip
Backers
in the Rock Bottom market should concentrate their search
on the top four in the betting (Burnley, Hull,
Birmingham, Wolves), which has produced the bottom-placed
club in 11 of the past 14 seasons. And Burnley at 3.05
look the best starting point, as relegation has been the
outcome for five of the seven clubs promoted in the past
14 seasons from a Championship position below third, with
three of the seven finishing bottom.
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