Football Relegation Betting - Betting Tactics,Tips

THE FOOTBALL RELEGATION BATTLE AND ROCK BOTTOM MARKETS

An article from Betfair Betting Exchange for Best Ten Gaming Sites by Andrew Athlerley

It pays to ignore the obvious in football

With plenty of twists, turns and relegation dogfights that usually go down to the wire, these are two of Betfair’s most exciting season-long betting markets. This is really where the highly competitive nature of the Premier League comes into play and, with the relegation situation often changing week by week, there are plenty of trading opportunities for backers and layers.

Sometimes one of the big names can be sucked into the relegation abyss – Newcastle last season and Leeds in 2003/04 - and that means big prices can be available for backers. Newcastle started last season at 24.0 to be relegated and were odds-against for most of the season, even after it became clear they had plenty of problems, whilst Birmingham were relegated in 2005/06 after starting the season at 18.0.

On the other hand, for layers it can pay to lay the obvious favourites. Hull and Stoke survived last season, having started at 1.44 and 1.53 respectively, and in two of the past four seasons both of the two shortest-priced teams in the relegation market have stayed up.

The 2009/10 Relegation market

Bets in the Relegation market are settled on whether a team finishes in one of the bottom three places (18th, 19th, 20th) and the three promoted teams always start the season at, or near, the top of the market. This season is no exception – Burnley are favourites at 1.66, Birmingham are next at 2.08 and Wolves are fourth favourites at 2.56. Splitting them are Hull, who survived by the skin of their teeth last season and, like Birmingham, are 2.08 to go down this time.

Yet the promoted teams don’t go down as often as most people think. In the 14 seasons since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams, fewer than half of the promoted teams (20 out of 42) have been relegated.

The other grouping to look at, especially for backers in search of bigger prices, is the worst six survivors from last season (the teams that finished in places 12th-17th). In the past 14 seasons, 16 of the 42 relegated teams have come from this group.

Overall, that means 36 of the last 42 relegated teams have been either (a) promoted teams or (b) among the worst six survivors from the previous season. So, for this season, that gives us a list of nine teams that are likely to contain the three relegated teams – as well as the aforementioned Burnley, Birmingham, Wolves and Hull, that list includes Sunderland (16th last season) and available at 10.0 to be relegated, Blackburn (15th) at 9.8, Portsmouth (14th) at 4.9, Bolton (13th) at 8.6 and Stoke (12th) at 4.3.

The Rock Bottom market

This is the market for backers who think a particular team won’t be able to cut it in the Premier League this season, with bets settled only on whether a team finishes bottom (20th) in the Premier League. With only one place available, backers have to be spot on with their predictions, but the attraction is that bigger prices are available than in the relegation market.

The favourites this season are Burnley at 3.05, though it is worth bearing in mind that the favourite has finished bottom in only four of the past 10 seasons.

Of the other eight teams that start the season in greatest peril, Hull are next in the Rock Bottom market at 5.1, Birmingham are 7.2, Wolves 8.6, Portsmouth 15.5, Stoke 18.0, Sunderland 29.0, Blackburn 32.0 and Bolton 40.0.

The other team the market is pointing towards is Wigan, 11th last season under Steve Bruce but now managed by novice Premier League manager Roberto Martinez. The Latics are 16 in the Rock Bottom market and 5.6 sixth favourites in the Relegation market.

Unlike the Relegation market, it usually pays to bet on one of the promoted teams in the Rock Bottom market. In the past 14 seasons, a promoted team has finished bottom on nine occasions, including in five of the past six seasons. Two of the other five bottom-placed teams had finished 17th the previous season, so the likelihood is that the bottom team this time will be one of the three promoted teams - Burnley, Birmingham or Wolves – or last season’s 17th-placed finisher, Hull.

Top Tip

Backers in the Rock Bottom market should concentrate their search on the top four in the betting (Burnley, Hull, Birmingham, Wolves), which has produced the bottom-placed club in 11 of the past 14 seasons. And Burnley at 3.05 look the best starting point, as relegation has been the outcome for five of the seven clubs promoted in the past 14 seasons from a Championship position below third, with three of the seven finishing bottom.